{"id":3794,"date":"2023-03-20T09:48:33","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T09:48:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stavangeram.com\/?p=3794"},"modified":"2023-03-29T10:51:41","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T10:51:41","slug":"february-comment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stavangeram.com\/nb\/february-comment\/","title":{"rendered":"February Comment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Som vi skrev i forrige markedskommentar s\u00e5 har verdens b\u00f8rser startet \u00e5ret ganske sterkt. S\u00e5 bra at vi i v\u00e5re portef\u00f8ljer hentet inn store deler av nedgangen fra i fjor p\u00e5 \u00e9n m\u00e5ned.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Februar startet ogs\u00e5 bra, men optimismen dabbet noe av mot slutten av m\u00e5neden. Det store temaet er fortsatt inflasjon, og selv om den har kommet ned noe fra toppniv\u00e5ene flere steder i verden, s\u00e5 er den fortsatt ukomfortabelt h\u00f8y. Utsiktene til h\u00f8yere renter tynget de globale aksjemarkedene utover m\u00e5neden, men Oslo B\u00f8rs viste positiv utvikling i februar. N\u00e5 hadde ogs\u00e5 Oslo B\u00f8rs litt \u00e5 g\u00e5 p\u00e5 i forhold til \u00f8vrige sterke markeder i januar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Sentralbankene har som kjent satt opp rentene og strammet inn p\u00e5 pengepolitikken. Dette har effekt, men sp\u00f8rsm\u00e5let er hvor mye lut som m\u00e5 til for \u00e5 f\u00e5 inflasjonen ned mot 2% som er m\u00e5let til de fleste sentralbanker.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Debatten raser fortsatt over hvorvidt vi er i en resesjon, om vi er p\u00e5 vei inn i en resesjon, eller om det ikke blir noen resesjon i det hele tatt. Dette er selvf\u00f8lgelig en definisjonssak. Den amerikanske \u00f8konomien hadde to p\u00e5f\u00f8lgende kvartaler med negativ utvikling i BNP\u2019en i fjor, men en offisiell resesjon ble ikke erkl\u00e6rt da man ikke s\u00e5 fall i l\u00f8nningene, industriproduksjon eller konsum.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Global BNP (Bruttonasjonalprodukt) var mer motstandsdyktig enn mange hadde trodd, og den \u00f8konomiske nedgangen har v\u00e6rt mindre enn mange hadde fryktet, s\u00e5 langt. Samtidig s\u00e5 ser vi at rente\u00f8kningene begynner \u00e5 f\u00e5 effekt. Husholdningene begynner \u00e5 f\u00f8le rente\u00f8kningene, og str\u00f8m- og matvareprisene p\u00e5 kroppen. Da m\u00e5 nesten forbruket falle. Av frykt for at den vedvarende h\u00f8ye inflasjonen skal resultere i pris-l\u00f8nnsspiraler, satte den amerikanske sentralbanken opp renten med ytterligere 0,25% i februar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Det positive er at b\u00e5de privat- og selskapsbalansene ser bedre ut enn noen gang tidligere p\u00e5 vei inn i en mulig resesjon. Det burde b\u00e5de begrense nedsiden noe, samtidig som resesjonen kan bli mildere, og en s\u00e5kalt myk landing er fortsatt mulig. Hvis det blir resesjon, s\u00e5 blir det tidenes mest varslede resesjon, og dermed har mye av oppryddingen allerede skjedd. Dette gjelder kanskje s\u00e6rlig i rentemarkedet, men aksjer har ogs\u00e5 tatt unna en god del av en potensiell nedside. Mye av inflasjonen og rente\u00f8kningene er allerede priset inn. Og som vi vet, s\u00e5 snur aksjemarkedet som regel opp f\u00f8r de \u00f8konomiske dataene tilsier at real\u00f8konomien har snudd oppover igjen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">I et slik scenario mener vi fortsatt at man heller skal fokusere p\u00e5 verdi enn vekst. Heller utbytte i dag, enn dr\u00f8mmen om gull og gr\u00f8nne skoger i morgen. Heller kortere enn lengre renter, og heller h\u00f8yere enn lavere renter, og i Norge fortrinnsvis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Vi holder p\u00e5 v\u00e5r vekting mot Norge og undervekten mot USA. Vi vurderer kontinuerlig eksponeringen vi har, og er p\u00e5 ingen m\u00e5te statisk i v\u00e5rt syn p\u00e5 verden. Aksjer ser fortsatt ut som en av de bedre aktivaklassene \u00e5 holde i et lengre perspektiv, og for de som har renteeksponering s\u00e5 kan man glede seg over at man igjen faktisk f\u00e5r renter (uten \u00e5 ta h\u00f8y risiko). N\u00e5 skal det v\u00e6re sagt at inflasjonen er h\u00f8yere enn risikofri rente, s\u00e5 penger p\u00e5 konto vil aldri svare seg over tid. Noe risiko m\u00e5 man med andre ord ta. Varige tap skal man passe seg godt for, men noe svingninger burde man t\u00e5le.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Turbulente tider kan ogs\u00e5 v\u00e6re positivt, alt etter \u00f8yet som ser. Vi ser ogs\u00e5 muligheter i markeder som svinger, og som Warren Buffett en gang sa; \u00abWhether we\u00b4re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.\u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"NO-BOK\">Ha en fortsatt fin dag!<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Som vi skrev i forrige markedskommentar s\u00e5 har verdens b\u00f8rser startet \u00e5ret ganske sterkt. S\u00e5 bra at vi i v\u00e5re portef\u00f8ljer hentet inn store deler av nedgangen fra i fjor p\u00e5 \u00e9n m\u00e5ned. Februar startet ogs\u00e5 bra, men optimismen dabbet noe av mot slutten av m\u00e5neden. Det store temaet er fortsatt inflasjon, og selv om [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogpost"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>February Comment - Stavanger Asset Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/stavangeram.com\/nb\/february-comment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"nb_NO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"February Comment - Stavanger Asset Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Som vi skrev i forrige markedskommentar s\u00e5 har verdens b\u00f8rser startet \u00e5ret ganske sterkt. S\u00e5 bra at vi i v\u00e5re portef\u00f8ljer hentet inn store deler av nedgangen fra i fjor p\u00e5 \u00e9n m\u00e5ned. Februar startet ogs\u00e5 bra, men optimismen dabbet noe av mot slutten av m\u00e5neden. 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